MLB best bets: Odds, expert picks, predictions for Friday 5/3

Mariners vs. Astros

Friday, May 3, 8:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Astros ML (-112, DraftKings)

By Sean Paul

The biggest surprise of the 2024 MLB season? The Houston Astros sit tied for last in the AL West at 11-20.

The Astros are 3.5 games behind the A’s, who entered the season with the lowest projected win total in baseball.

But I think the tide will turn soon.

The Astros' biggest problem is health, particularly in the starting rotation. The one reliable starter is Ronel Blanco, who proved his no-hitter against the Blue Jays wasn’t a one-off performance. Blanco has a 1.65 ERA in 32 innings with a sub-1.00 WHIP.

I think Blanco will successfully carve through the Mariners shaky lineup. The Mariners rank 21st out of 30 teams in wRC+ (93) with a stunningly poor 28% strikeout rate. It’s not a small sample size thing either, as the Mariners offense is poorly constructed and star outfielder Julio Rodriguez has a 90 wRC+ with only one homer.

Opposing Blanco is the modern-day Greg Maddox (with more velo), George Kirby. The 26-year-old Kirby owns the best walk rate in baseball, but the Astros' (116 wRC+) high-octane offense will look to pounce early and often. Inserting Jon Singleton in place of Jose Avery has made a noticeable difference for the Astros lineup in the past week and adds firepower to the bottom of the order.

Lastly, Josh Hader got two days off after pitching two innings in an extra-inning win on Tuesday. The high-priced closer will be ready to go for the series opener in Houston.

I love the 'Stros in this spot.

Pick: Astros ML (-112) | Bet to ML (-120)

Under 8.5 (-120, DraftKings)

By D.J. James

Blanco has found his groove in the Houston Astros rotation.

The 30-year-old righty is looking like a diamond in the rough. After throwing a no-hitter earlier this season, his ERA is 1.65 with a 2.32 xERA. He has done so with an Average Exit Velocity under 86 MPH and a Hard Hit Rate ranking in the 96th percentile among qualified pitchers. His walk rate is sketchy, but otherwise, he has looked great.

Kirby is his opponent Friday for the Seattle Mariners. He's been the recipient of poor fortune with an ERA over 4.00 but an expected ERA of 2.99. He has had some issues with keeping the ball on the ground, but he throws a ton of strikes (3% walk rate).

The Astros have hit shockingly well off of righties (112 wRC+), but Kirby should keep the ball in the strike zone and pitch deep into the game, as he usually can do.

Blanco should take advantage of a Seattle lineup that has a 96 wRC+ off of righties with a strikeout rate nearing 30%. Their walk rate is high, but Blanco can blank them.

In relief, each team has enough bullets to keep the other in check. Both units collective sub-4.10 expected FIPs.

Look for this game to be low-scoring. Runs should be at a premium with two fantastic pitchers starting.

Pick: Under 8.5 (-120) | Bet to 7.5 (-110)

Red Sox vs. Twins

Friday, May 3, 8:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Tanner Houck Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-115, Bet365)

By Cody Goggin

Tanner Houck will get the start for the Boston Red Sox on Friday as they take on the Minnesota Twins.

Houck, a former first-round pick, took some time to get going in his MLB career but he appears to have turned a corner as he is having his best season yet.

Houck sports a 1.60 ERA through six starts with a 1.99 FIP and A 3.04 expected ERA. Among 83 qualified pitchers, Houck's 108 Stuff+ mark ranks 22nd. He's also excelled with location (21st in Location+), so he ranks fifth among all qualified pitchers in Pitching+.

Houck has 41 strikeouts in 39 1/3 innings pitched, a 26.5% strikeout rate. He also ranks in the 96th percentile among qualified pitchers in walk rate, allowing him to go deep into games. Houck has pitched at least 5 2/3 innings in every start this season, putting up quality starts in five of six outings.

His opponent will be the Minnesota Twins, who have the eighth-highest strikeout rate in the league overall and sixth-highest against right-handers.

Houck’s strikeout total is 5.5, a mark that he has exceeded in four starts this year. I project him for an average of 6.50 strikeouts with a median outcome of 6, so I like looking at his over here. My model prices his over at -185 compared to -130 on the market right now, representing a 8.37% edge to the over.

Pick: Tanner Houck Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-115) | Play to 5.5 (-155)

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Padres vs. Diamondbacks

Friday, May 3, 9:40 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Under 9 (-105, BetMGM)

By Tony Sartori

Aside from having perhaps the coolest name in baseball, right-hander Slade Cecconi has been a massive and welcomed surprise for Arizona this season. Through his first two starts, Cecconi boasts a 2.25 ERA and 0.50 WHIP.

There were eight or fewer total runs scored in each of those two outings.

Cecconi's underlying metrics are somehow even stronger, as he ranks in the 97th percentile of qualified pitchers in expected ERA, 97th percentile in expected batting average allowed and 92nd percentile in average exit velocity allowed. It's a small sample size, but he sports one of the best underlying statistical profiles in MLB.

So, we should see a pitcher's duel on Friday, especially with right-hander Dylan Cease on the mound for San Diego. Cease is 3-2 through six starts with a commanding 2.78 ERA and 0.87 WHIP.

There have been nine or fewer total runs scored in four of his past five outings.

Like Cecconi, Cease's underlying metrics are excellent as he ranks in the 81st percentile among qualified pitchers in pitching run value, 63rd percentile in expected ERA and 82nd percentile in expected batting average allowed.

Both these lineups are strong, but the total set at nine is an over-adjustment, especially in a Cecconi/Cease matchup.

Pick: Under 9 (-105)